Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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39 0x39d7…ac39 crypto 1385 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,190 (-7%) realized −$6,244 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate78%1077W / 296L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,643
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 66% -13.7%
≤30d 353 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 66% -13.7%
≤90d 353 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 66% -13.7%
all 1373 -3.2% -12.4% 78% 73% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 73% -12.3%
10% -20.8% 40% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 9% -28.4%
20% -35.4% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$48 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$6,244
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1077 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1373 / 1385
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+41%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+51%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+47%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 67¢ 84¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 66¢ 81¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+23%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 78¢ 76¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 75¢ 78¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 87¢ 78¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 75¢ 75¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 67¢ 70¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$9 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$5 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$10 +43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$7 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$7 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$8 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$11 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$12 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$7 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$12 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$9 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$9 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$10 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$10 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$5 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$6 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$9 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $29 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $22 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $22 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $0 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $22 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.48 · official $345.12 (match) · 3500 history records