Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39d6…89ab
crypto · 1248 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,490 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,113 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$182
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses857 / 385
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1242 / 1248
History coverage97d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1242 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$410
14 days−$746
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 12¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 39¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$245 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $226 −$226 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $250 −$245 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $94 −$94 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $183 −$183 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $227 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $205 +$84 +41%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $1,109 +$423 +38%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $669 +$151 +22%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $459 +$32 +7%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $41 −$20 -50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $152 −$15 -10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $184 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 06 $124 −$36 -29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $189 −$189 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $187 −$187 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 06 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $103 +$53 +51%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $445 +$273 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $18 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$8 +86%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $152 −$9 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$418
sports 48% −$682
weather 1% +$6
other 0% +$6
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 25m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ $3 9h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 3¢ $5 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $18 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $31 21h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 38¢ $50 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 36¢ $31 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 42¢ $9 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 44¢ $10 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 54¢ $59 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 32¢ $41 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 32¢ $13 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 30¢ $15 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 44¢ $10 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 47¢ $10 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 59¢ $1 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 7¢ $2 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $30 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $14 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $7 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $37 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $8 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $47 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $7 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -72.3% -75.0% 21% 12% -19.3%
≤30d 77 -43.3% -48.7% 27% 25% -20.5%
≤90d 362 -20.9% -28.4% 37% 28% -18.2%
all 1242 -7.6% -16.4% 69% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 27% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 7% -23.4%
15% -31.7% 6% -30.8%
20% -38.4% 5% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.50 · official $182.50 (match) · 3500 history records