Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
39 0x39d0…b6e2 crypto 934 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$466 (+2%) realized +$343 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%567W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$235
14 days+$502
30 days−$2,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$741
other 4% +$512
finance 2% +$227
world 2% +$13
tech 1% +$18
politics 1% +$125
economics 0% +$7
weather 0% +$2
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -15.8%
≤30d 709 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 56% -22.2%
≤90d 904 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 61% -10.3%
all 921 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 60% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 60% -9.4%
10% -22.3% 54% -18.1%
15% -29.8% 38% -26.0%
20% -36.7% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses567 / 354
Open positions13
Markets (closed)921 / 934
History coverage132d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 921 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 40¢ 99¢ $97 $238 +$141 (+145%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 26¢ 31¢ $105 $124 +$19 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 53¢ $74 $109 +$34 (+46%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
USDE depeg by December 31? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-56%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 63¢ 18¢ $20 $6 −$15 (-72%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? No 31¢ 14¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? No 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 240 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$27 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$13 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$33 +76%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$24 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$17 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$16 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +119%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$20 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$19 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $46 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $44 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $29 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $29 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $32 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.61 · official $595.61 (match) · 2211 history records