Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:10:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39ca…7605
world · 464 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$268 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$317 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$204
Realized−$317
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses174 / 250
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions40
Markets (closed)424 / 464
History coverage124d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 40 History 424 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$250
14 days−$250
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $21 $43 +$22 (+105%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 78¢ 97¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 82¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? No 94¢ 98¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? No 80¢ 89¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+72%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 65¢ 54¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 51¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+98%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 56¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 57¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 31¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$4 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 −$7 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$7 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$5 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$2 -10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" during events in Rockland County? Jun 13 $2 $0 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 −$4 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$12 +236%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Will Trump say "Fighter" during Coast Guard event? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events in Rockland County? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -70%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m Jun 13 $3 −$2 -80%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$2 -20%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -87%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% −$93
sports 13% −$109
culture 10% −$73
other 4% +$10
politics 3% −$42
finance 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$14
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 5m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $2 5m
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? SELL No 96¢ $0 8m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $2 16m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 37¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 37¢ $1 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 21¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 38¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? SELL No 20¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 43¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 28¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 81¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $11 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 88¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 39¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 70¢ $4 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 40¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -24.2% -31.4% 27% 21% -26.0%
≤30d 271 -11.2% -19.6% 36% 26% -12.3%
≤90d 398 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 26% -13.1%
all 424 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 26% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 26% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 17% -21.3%
15% -33.4% 13% -28.9%
20% -39.9% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.43 · official $205.49 (match) · 2905 history records