Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39c9…3b87 other 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$732 (-11%) realized −$619 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$38
14 days−$45
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$424
finance 17% −$197
sports 5% −$95
world 3% −$17
crypto 1% +$8
politics 1% +$3
economics 0% −$13
weather 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 36 -33.4% -39.8% 6% 6% -21.4%
≤90d 92 -48.5% -53.4% 9% 7% -31.5%
all 242 -36.1% -42.2% 10% 8% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 8% -28.2%
10% -47.7% 7% -35.1%
15% -52.8% 6% -41.4%
20% -57.4% 6% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$4 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$2,211
Realized−$619
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 219
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions28
Markets (closed)242 / 270
History coverage156d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,784 $1,690 −$94 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $90 $113 +$23 (+26%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $75 $57 −$18 (-24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+90%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-75%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 −$7 -11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$12 -26%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 −$8 -18%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$6 -54%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -22%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $25 +$62 +253%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $6 −$4 -59%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $61 −$22 -35%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? May 19 $15 −$6 -36%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
New pandemic in 2026? May 06 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $56 −$26 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Rafael Jódar win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Apr 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $39 43m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 23h
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $719 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,211.42 · official $2,210.53 (match) · 1135 history records