Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
39 0x39c9…7deb sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,301 (+27%) realized +$2,748 · open +$553
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$4,034
other 2% +$169
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% +19.7%
≤30d 50 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% +19.7%
≤90d 50 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% +19.7%
all 50 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 54% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 54% +8.3%
15% -7.0% 50% -2.2%
20% -16.1% 48% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$162 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,212
Realized+$2,748
Unrealized+$553
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage5d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Paula Badosa 18¢ 94¢ $169 $889 +$720 (+425%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ 40¢ $490 $323 −$167 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $217 −$44 -20%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Jun 17 $266 +$305 +115%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 17 $340 +$160 +47%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $128 −$39 -31%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $253 +$166 +66%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $493 +$560 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $252 −$250 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $264 −$260 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $949 +$958 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $589 +$449 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $129 +$92 +71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $355 −$350 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $457 −$450 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $208 +$676 +324%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $156 −$154 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $253 +$201 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $253 +$170 +67%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$261 +128%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $285 −$30 -11%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $150 +$148 +99%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$39 -77%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $96 +$139 +145%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $204 +$368 +181%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$290 +165%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$121 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 +$273 +134%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $230 +$64 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $254 +$237 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $201 +$248 +123%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $160 −$157 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $279 +$73 +26%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$54 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$315 +155%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 +$222 +220%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 +$266 +130%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $163 +$185 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $156 −$154 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $149 −$147 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $80 +$155 +194%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$118 +197%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $64 −$3 -6%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$98 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 18¢ $174 43m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 38¢ $173 44m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $496 58m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $217 1h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) SELL Pegula 100¢ $570 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 9¢ $85 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $256 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 16¢ $89 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 22¢ $128 1h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $2 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $15 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $32 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $81 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $87 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $64 3h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 68¢ $60 3h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Pegula 45¢ $32 3h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Pegula 46¢ $234 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 60¢ $253 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $1,052 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $238 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $254 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $252 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $264 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $949 11h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $509 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $403 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $589 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 97¢ $221 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $355 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,211.90 · official $1,114.48 · 115 history records