Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39c8…9514 other 187 markets active 6d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 181L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$20
politics 24% −$8
other 23% −$7
economics 11% −$3
sports 9% −$10
crypto 6% −$9
finance 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -20.0% -27.6% 0% 0% -27.6%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 63 +49.8% +35.5% 5% 3% -9.9%
all 186 +16.3% +5.3% 3% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -4.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -14.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -22.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage107d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$8 -20%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $151 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $74 −$3 -4%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $84 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $78 +$5 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $4 $0 -12%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie Apr 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $95 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $61 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 24 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 23 $190 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $4 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $353 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $26 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $34 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $7 6d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 43¢ $17 12d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $58 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $0 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $2 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $34 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 86¢ $60 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $1 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $21 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $16 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $34 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $58 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $8 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 74¢ $22 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $14 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $47 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $14 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 1348 history records