Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
39 0x39c4…2876 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$47
sports 30% +$33
crypto 25% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 57% +10.9%
≤30d 7 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 57% +10.9%
≤90d 10 -7.0% -15.8% 50% 50% -6.0%
all 10 -7.0% -15.8% 50% 50% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -6.0%
10% -23.9% 50% -15.0%
15% -31.3% 40% -23.2%
20% -38.0% 40% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage63d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $38 +$35 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $39 +$24 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 02 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Cha Apr 27 $12 +$22 +188%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 20h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 61¢ $39 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 36h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 75¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 6¢ $12 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 54d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Cha SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $34 59d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Cha BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 34¢ $12 59d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $8 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.28 · official $70.28 (match) · 23 history records