Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39c3…e155 weather 1200 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$715 (-1%) realized −$851 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%660W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$266
14 days−$220
30 days−$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -4.7% -13.8% 77% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 238 -3.4% -12.6% 83% 18% -10.3%
≤90d 1189 -12.1% -20.5% 56% 21% -10.3%
all 1189 -12.1% -20.5% 56% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 21% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 9% -18.9%
15% -35.0% 6% -26.7%
20% -41.4% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$1,107
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses660 / 529
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1189 / 1200
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? No 94¢ 99¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? No 92¢ 96¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? No 0¢ 91¢ $0 $159 +$159 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? No 89¢ 84¢ $123 $116 −$7 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? No 93¢ 88¢ $111 $105 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? No 95¢ 96¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? No 94¢ 92¢ $71 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? No 90¢ 92¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? No 91¢ 86¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? No 86¢ 92¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? No 84¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $62 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $68 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $201 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $61 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $144 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $74 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $105 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $73 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$7 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 −$16 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $53 −$11 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $130 +$17 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $201 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $201 −$39 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 −$41 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $158 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $64 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $201 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $72 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $77 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $201 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $32 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $65 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $61 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $123 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $68 38h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $62 39h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $50 41h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $25 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 83¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $74 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $144 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 92¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $105 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,106.85 · official $1,106.85 (match) · 3500 history records