Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x39c1…3174 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$400 (+20%) realized +$380 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +69.0% +52.9% 52% 44% +18.6%
≤30d 25 +69.0% +52.9% 52% 44% +18.6%
≤90d 25 +69.0% +52.9% 52% 44% +18.6%
all 25 +69.0% +52.9% 52% 44% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.9% 44% +18.6%
10% ← realistic here +38.3% 36% +7.3%
15% +24.9% 36% -3.1%
20% +12.6% 32% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +103% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$20 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized+$380
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions17
Markets (closed)25 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 49¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 55¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Yidi Yang 71¢ 75¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ 86¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 79¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Odeta Panasa 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 53¢ 50¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Priska Madelyn Nugroho 81¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim Jun 17 $30 +$102 +344%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $101 −$39 -39%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Koki Matsuda Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $37 +$107 +291%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $50 −$13 -25%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $82 −$23 -28%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $9 +$103 +1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 81¢ $50 2h
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim BUY Alberto Lim 22¢ $30 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 2h
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Koki Matsuda BUY Koki Matsuda 73¢ $50 3h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Rinko Matsuda 81¢ $50 3h
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa BUY Mayuka Aikawa 91¢ $50 6h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Axel Nefve $4 9h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr BUY Sara Cakarevic 23¢ $5 15h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $51 16h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 16h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 16h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Gianmarco Ferrari 93¢ $50 17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) BUY Ruiz 51¢ $51 18h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 25¢ $37 19h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 67¢ $50 20h
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova BUY Kristiana Sidorova 59¢ $51 20h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ $51 20h
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang BUY Yidi Yang 71¢ $50 21h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ $50 22h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ $50 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 85¢ $50 22h
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda BUY Naoya Honda 69¢ $50 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Claudia Ferrer Perez 23¢ $32 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Ekaterina Maklakova 59¢ $51 22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 47¢ $51 23h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 23h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.96 · official $941.96 (match) · 62 history records