Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

39 0x39c1…3174 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$400 (+20%) realized +$380 · open +$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate52%13W / 12L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day33.6pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+52.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+69.0%	+52.9%	52%	44%	+18.6%
≤30d	25	+69.0%	+52.9%	52%	44%	+18.6%
≤90d	25	+69.0%	+52.9%	52%	44%	+18.6%
all	25	+69.0%	+52.9%	52%	44%	+18.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+52.9%	44%	+18.6%
10% ← realistic here	+38.3%	36%	+7.3%
15%	+24.9%	36%	-3.1%
20%	+12.6%	32%	-12.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +69% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +103% → late +38% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$20 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$942

Realized+$380

Unrealized+$20

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses13 / 12

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions17

Markets (closed)25 / 42

History coverage1d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day33.6

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 17 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	100¢	$50	$88	+$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	49¢	$50	$74	+$24 (+48%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)	G2	50¢	55¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang	Yidi Yang	71¢	75¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder	Eva Marie Voracek	81¢	86¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner	Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar	56¢	59¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti	Marianne Argyrokastriti	90¢	94¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova	Karine Sarkisova	79¢	80¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina	Patricia Georgiana Goina	92¢	92¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+0%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena	Odeta Panasa	55¢	55¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5	Under	51¢	50¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	51¢	50¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura	Hyeon Chung	52¢	50¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	53¢	50¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-6%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan	Aoyama/Chan	57¢	52¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	G2	24¢	26¢	$36	$40	+$4 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren	Priska Madelyn Nugroho	81¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim	Jun 17	$30	+$102	+344%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova	Jun 17	$51	+$34	+67%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	Jun 17	$101	−$39	-39%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda	Jun 17	$50	+$22	+44%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Koki Matsuda	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-97%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri	Jun 16	$50	+$4	+7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	−$2	-3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$51	−$2	-3%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang	Jun 16	$51	+$44	+86%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B	Jun 16	$37	+$107	+291%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri	Jun 16	$51	−$2	-3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari	Jun 16	$50	+$3	+7%
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	−$1	-2%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	+$84	+165%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu	Jun 16	$50	+$7	+14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic	Jun 16	$51	+$31	+62%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz	Jun 16	$50	−$13	-25%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	Jun 16	$82	−$23	-28%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka	Jun 16	$51	+$56	+109%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara	Jun 16	$50	+$7	+14%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez	Jun 16	$9	+$103	+1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	$51	1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren	BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho	81¢	$50	2h
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim	BUY Alberto Lim	22¢	$30	2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	BUY Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	$51	2h
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Koki Matsuda	BUY Koki Matsuda	73¢	$50	3h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner	BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar	56¢	$51	3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Rinko Matsuda	81¢	$50	3h
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa	BUY Mayuka Aikawa	91¢	$50	6h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf	BUY Axel Nefve	4¢	$4	9h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan	BUY Aoyama/Chan	57¢	$51	13h
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr	BUY Sara Cakarevic	23¢	$5	15h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri	BUY Ipek Oz	51¢	$51	16h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5)	BUY Pieri	51¢	$51	16h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Under 2.5	51¢	$51	16h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari	BUY Gianmarco Ferrari	93¢	$50	17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5)	BUY Ruiz	51¢	$51	18h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B	BUY LPH Gaming	25¢	$37	19h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz	BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz	67¢	$50	20h
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova	BUY Kristiana Sidorova	59¢	$51	20h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang	BUY Zhizhen Zhang	53¢	$51	20h
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang	BUY Yidi Yang	71¢	$50	21h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti	BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti	90¢	$50	22h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina	BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina	92¢	$50	22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	BUY Elena Milovanovic	85¢	$50	22h
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda	BUY Naoya Honda	69¢	$50	22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	BUY Claudia Ferrer Perez	23¢	$32	22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Ekaterina Maklakova	59¢	$51	22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka	BUY Taiyo Yamanaka	47¢	$51	23h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Under 2.5	51¢	$51	23h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5	BUY Under	51¢	$51	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.96 · official $941.96 (match) · 62 history records