Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39bf…8724 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+8%) realized +$13 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$12
other 17% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 70% 60% -13.9%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 70% 60% -13.9%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 70% 60% -13.9%
all 10 -1.1% -10.6% 70% 60% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 60% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 50% -22.1%
15% -26.9% 30% -29.6%
20% -34.1% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $49 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.54 · official $58.88 (match) · 33 history records