Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39bf…aeec other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-26%) realized −$66 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$6
sports 25% −$30
crypto 14% $0
politics 7% −$12
world 5% −$11
tech 2% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.8% -41.0% 44% 44% -35.5%
≤30d 19 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 47% -25.6%
≤90d 44 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 39% -43.6%
all 45 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 38% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 38% -47.3%
10% -35.2% 33% -52.3%
15% -41.4% 29% -56.9%
20% -47.2% 16% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)45 / 53
History coverage106d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 +$2 +226%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $1 +$2 +159%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 18 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -39%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? Mar 29 $14 −$5 -33%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 27 $5 −$4 -73%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 13 $12 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $4 11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 9¢ $0 12h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $1 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $4 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $3 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $1 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 19d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 24d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 25d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 25d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 28d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 31d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.70 · official $59.70 (match) · 151 history records