trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$5 | +498% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -6.4% | -15.3% | 30% | 30% | -14.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -6.4% | -15.3% | 30% | 30% | -14.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -6.4% | -15.3% | 30% | 30% | -14.0% |
| all | 10 | -6.4% | -15.3% | 30% | 30% | -14.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.3% | 30% | -14.0% |
| 10% | -23.4% | 10% | -22.2% |
| 15% | -30.8% | 10% | -29.8% |
| 20% | -37.6% | 10% | -36.6% |