Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
39 0x39bc…2739 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,954 (+23%) realized +$3,208 · open −$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,238
7 days+$3,294
14 days+$3,294
30 days+$3,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$2,467
sports 40% +$1,563
world 12% −$1,500
crypto 4% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +18.9%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +18.9%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +18.9%
all 50 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 36% +11.7%
10% -30.7% 36% +1.0%
15% -37.4% 36% -8.7%
20% -43.6% 34% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$160 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$3,208
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage99d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 28¢ $550 $296 −$254 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,525 +$1,884 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $500 +$565 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $613 +$1,839 +300%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $848 −$830 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,517 +$864 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $508 +$578 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $996 +$1,134 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $893 +$370 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $200 −$194 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $120 +$195 +163%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 13 $150 −$137 -92%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $50 +$48 +95%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $119 −$69 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 3AM ET Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12AM ET Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $93 −$30 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 1AM ET Mar 10 $50 +$56 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$150 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$16 +161%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $5 +$6 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 10 $30 +$61 +202%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 09 $88 +$138 +157%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 09 $30 +$39 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $558 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,521 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,525 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $2 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $1 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $16 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $46 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $2 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $68 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $7 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $6 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $7 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $1 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $3 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $3 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $42 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $13 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $19 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $7 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $157 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 86¢ $1,065 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $66 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $389 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $13 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $32 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $82 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.65 · official $295.75 (match) · 140 history records