Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39bb…8d44 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$688 (-29%) realized −$631 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$652
other 14% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.0% -43.0% 0% 0% -50.0%
≤30d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 30% 30% -24.9%
≤90d 21 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 24% -39.7%
all 25 -35.2% -41.4% 24% 24% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 24% -36.9%
10% -47.0% 24% -42.9%
15% -52.1% 24% -48.4%
20% -56.8% 20% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$64 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage102d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 28¢ $58 $2 −$57 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $64 −$4 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $106 −$72 -68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $222 −$218 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 24 $98 +$129 +132%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $90 −$88 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 24 $122 +$167 +137%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $104 +$119 +114%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $86 −$84 -98%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $43 −$3 -7%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $25 −$14 -57%
CA Osasuna leading at halftime? May 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $7 +$4 +59%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $92 −$85 -92%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $50 −$49 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Apr 28 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Italy vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Mar 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Romania end in a draw? Mar 26 $48 −$19 -40%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $48 −$48 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Mar 07 $163 −$163 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $282 −$119 -42%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $201 +$82 +41%
Spread: Hornets (-8.5) Mar 07 $213 −$13 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $60 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $60 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $64 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $34 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $106 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $222 24d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 24¢ $4 24d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Legacy 99¢ $226 24d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 42¢ $98 24d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY MIBR 24¢ $101 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $90 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline SELL Knicks 99¢ $289 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 41¢ $122 24d
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 50¢ $102 24d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 24d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $104 24d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 31d
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana SELL Oh My God 34¢ $1 35d
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana SELL Oh My God 34¢ $39 35d
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Oh My God 35¢ $43 35d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $11 35d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 35d
CA Osasuna leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 45d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes $7 45d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 45d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 54¢ $50 50d
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline SELL Magic 99¢ $50 50d
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline BUY Magic 63¢ $32 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 41 history records