trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 100% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 57% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 57% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 23 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 70% | 0% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 0% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $43 | $43 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $42 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 15 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee | Apr 12 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 08 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 07 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 29 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | -0% |