trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -25.1% | -32.3% | 50% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 31% | 8% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 31% | 8% | -9.6% |
| all | 25 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 44% | 8% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.8% | 8% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -24.8% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -32.0% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $3 | −$1 | -53% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 15 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +25% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $14 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | May 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $8 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? | May 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? | Apr 22 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 21 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 14 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce | Mar 04 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |