Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
39 0x39b2…157c crypto 957 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$437 (-9%) realized −$917 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate62%572W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$129
14 days−$403
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$220
other 27% −$429
politics 14% −$156
sports 13% −$145
weather 5% −$15
world 2% −$17
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -20.5% -28.1% 12% 9% -31.9%
≤30d 384 -15.0% -23.1% 31% 20% -33.9%
≤90d 925 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 22% -27.9%
all 925 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 22% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 22% -27.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 9% -34.8%
15% -32.8% 5% -41.1%
20% -39.4% 4% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$917
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses572 / 353
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)925 / 957
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Will Álvaro Morata win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Taylor Swift be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats Jun 14 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -13%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 19¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs SELL OLDBOYS- 79¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 80¢ $4 1h
Will Taylor Swift be TIME Person of the Year 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $4 19h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats SELL Yes 5¢ $0 19h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $4 19h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $2 19h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 31¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.05 · official $13.96 (match) · 2413 history records