Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ae…16af crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -26.9%
≤30d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -26.9%
≤90d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -26.9%
all 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 47% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 18% -33.9%
15% -43.2% 6% -40.3%
20% -48.7% 0% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $14 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records