Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39aa…583c other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50,328 (+8%) realized +$24,123 · open +$26,205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 77L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,882per market
Trades / day1316.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$104,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$345,047
economics 8% +$7,960
world 3% −$20,593
crypto 3% −$18,881
sports 0% +$76
tech 0% +$345
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 14% -98.8%
≤30d 105 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 14% -98.8%
≤90d 105 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 14% -98.8%
all 105 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 14% -98.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1316.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 14% -98.8%
10% -49.1% 10% -98.9%
15% ← realistic here -54.0% 8% -99.0%
20% -58.5% 7% -99.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$5,275 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$104,034
Realized+$24,123
Unrealized+$26,205
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions251
Markets (closed)105 / 162
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$3,882
Trades / day1316.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 251 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $19,913 $20,123 +$210 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $1,065 $10,317 +$9,253 (+869%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $1,065 $10,253 +$9,189 (+863%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $2,076 $10,040 +$7,964 (+384%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,977 $6,974 −$3 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,854 $6,850 −$3 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,394 $6,390 −$3 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1,065 $6,165 +$5,100 (+479%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1,065 $5,143 +$4,078 (+383%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $1,065 $4,312 +$3,247 (+305%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1,065 $4,057 +$2,992 (+281%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 6¢ 48¢ $97 $755 +$658 (+680%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 13¢ 38¢ $192 $547 +$355 (+185%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,065 $543 −$522 (-49%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 31¢ 68¢ $193 $422 +$229 (+119%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 34¢ 83¢ $154 $378 +$224 (+145%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 +$0 (+0%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $334 $334 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $541 −$1,065 -197%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $171 −$162 -94%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $541 −$1,065 -197%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $29 +$101 +354%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $138 +$32 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $272 +$238 +88%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $298 +$102 +34%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11,032 −$11,023 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,813 −$19,791 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,811 −$19,789 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,813 −$19,791 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,913 −$19,891 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,913 −$19,891 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,893 −$19,872 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,887 −$19,866 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19,874 −$19,852 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104,033.56 · official $104,031.19 (match) · 3500 history records