Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39aa…7143 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-7%) realized −$100 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$88
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-74.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -71.7% -74.4% 15% 15% +0.1%
≤30d 13 -71.7% -74.4% 15% 15% +0.1%
≤90d 13 -71.7% -74.4% 15% 15% +0.1%
all 13 -71.7% -74.4% 15% 15% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.4% 15% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -76.8% 15% -9.5%
15% -79.0% 15% -18.3%
20% -81.1% 8% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$10 · ×8.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)13 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 68¢ $232 $274 +$42 (+18%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 36¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 22¢ $26 $34 +$7 (+28%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 14¢ 19¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+40%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 28¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Over 11¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+54%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 8¢ $17 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 2¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Over 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 11¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-87%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 5¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-88%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $52 −$16 -31%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $290 +$110 +38%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $101 +$63 +62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $2 33m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 13¢ $9 35m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $8 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $11 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $16 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 38m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 5¢ $3 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $23 39m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 5¢ $0 39m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 5¢ $3 39m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 5¢ $3 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 41m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 14¢ $13 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $14 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.33 · official $475.34 (match) · 76 history records