Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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39 0x39aa…82eb crypto 1058 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,293 (-12%) realized −$3,294 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%453W / 636L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$949
7 days−$966
14 days−$959
30 days−$1,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,998
other 1% −$53
sports 1% −$50
economics 0% −$62
world 0% −$20
politics 0% −$9
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -63.0% -66.5% 25% 18% -78.3%
≤30d 244 -33.4% -39.7% 42% 35% -48.2%
≤90d 981 -21.9% -29.4% 41% 38% -28.2%
all 1089 -19.0% -26.7% 42% 39% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 39% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 34% -33.2%
15% -40.1% 27% -39.6%
20% -46.0% 21% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$3,294
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses453 / 636
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1089 / 1058
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 331 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 6? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$16 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.38 · official $96.39 (match) · 3500 history records