Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39a7…bd17 politics 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$3
other 31% −$3
sports 13% −$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage394d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $1 $0 -50%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $53 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $51 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $2 $0 -19%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 15 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 23d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 41d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 105d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 105d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 105d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 108d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 108d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 111d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 113d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 118d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $52 118d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $52 120d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 137d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $49 138d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 138d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $49 138d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $49 140d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 140d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 141d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 141d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 142d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.88 · official $49.88 (match) · 403 history records