Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39a6…7201 crypto 1007 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-7%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%563W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$268
other 29% −$93
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 42% -18.7%
≤30d 1004 -10.3% -18.9% 56% 42% -17.5%
≤90d 1007 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 42% -17.7%
all 1007 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 42% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 42% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 33% -25.5%
15% -33.8% 25% -32.7%
20% -40.3% 15% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses563 / 444
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1007 / 1007
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1007 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1929 history records