Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39a6…ebdd
world · 113 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$13,949 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31,969 · open −$17,671
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54,667
Realized+$31,969
Unrealized−$17,671
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions10
Markets (closed)103 / 113
History coverage90d
Avg bet$8,283
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 10 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$823
14 days+$12,759
30 days+$25,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $25,000 $42,575 +$17,575 (+70%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $25,000 $7,425 −$17,575 (-70%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $2,533 $3,288 +$755 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $589 $903 +$314 (+53%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 43¢ 82¢ $90 $171 +$81 (+90%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 19¢ $140 $148 +$8 (+6%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 61¢ 7¢ $730 $83 −$647 (-89%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 4¢ $646 $37 −$609 (-94%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+72%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-21%)
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3,104 $0 −$3,104 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 0¢ $695 $0 −$695 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $21,682 +$47 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $885 −$352 -40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,594 +$58 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,500 +$1,313 +88%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,531 +$1,017 +66%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $827 +$115 +14%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $50,000 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,044 −$164 -16%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $469 +$415 +88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $904 −$23 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $15,802 +$1,466 +9%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 07 $4,831 −$570 -12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 07 $3 +$11 +425%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Jun 07 $872 −$458 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 07 $1,481 −$251 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 07 $717 −$282 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 07 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 07 $117 −$115 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 07 $201 −$201 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $220 +$21 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,020 −$209 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,394 −$712 -51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $264,253 +$14,084 +5%
Will Harry Maguire be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq Jun 01 $286 +$1 +0%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $465 +$4 +1%
Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 01 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $30,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $49,262 +$527 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $33 +$84 +257%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66,111 +$66 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $3,897 −$3,044 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,226 +$213 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $3,052 +$278 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $1,355 +$314 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $139 −$111 -80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $25,573 −$14 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $50,834 −$617 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $34,390 −$54 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $680 +$120 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $684 +$150 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,959 +$1,775 +91%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $1,501 +$2,152 +143%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $218 +$2,391 +1099%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $666 +$2,792 +419%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $1,567 +$5,456 +348%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $9,706 +$353 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $14,461 −$1,466 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$7,893
crypto 29% +$17,221
politics 14% −$16,820
other 14% +$3,993
sports 1% +$207
tech 0% −$119
finance 0% +$1,923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $55 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $4 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 21h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $6 22h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $11 22h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $2 22h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 23h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $2 30h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 35h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 35h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $38 41h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 42h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $17 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $405 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $151 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $449 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $442 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $789 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 4¢ $75 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 20% -8.8%
≤30d 93 +11.7% +1.0% 51% 26% -6.9%
≤90d 97 +34.8% +22.0% 53% 29% -6.6%
all 103 +44.4% +30.7% 53% 30% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.7% 30% -6.4%
10% +18.2% 25% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here +6.8% 24% -23.5%
20% -3.7% 22% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,667.15 · official $54,667.26 (match) · 3500 history records