Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39a5…87f2
other · 1160 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$5,315 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,248 · open −$2,934
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108,039
Realized+$8,248
Unrealized−$2,934
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses804 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions202
Markets (closed)959 / 1160
History coverage98d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 202 History 959 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days−$1,997
14 days−$1,426
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $19,918 $19,950 +$32 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $10,274 $9,100 −$1,174 (-11%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $6,533 $6,891 +$358 (+5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 61¢ $9,725 $6,826 −$2,898 (-30%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $5,103 $5,129 +$26 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $4,726 $4,801 +$76 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $4,050 $4,800 +$750 (+19%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $4,842 $4,712 −$130 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,178 $3,207 +$29 (+1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $2,660 $2,795 +$134 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 82¢ 74¢ $2,729 $2,474 −$255 (-9%)
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,209 $2,224 +$15 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $2,140 $2,128 −$12 (-1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 94¢ 85¢ $2,358 $2,125 −$232 (-10%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $1,680 $1,745 +$66 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $1,070 $1,402 +$332 (+31%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 78¢ $1,388 $1,379 −$9 (-1%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $1,176 $1,155 −$21 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,114 $1,141 +$27 (+2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 61¢ 64¢ $1,013 $1,055 +$43 (+4%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,055 $1,054 −$2 (-0%)
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,054 $1,053 −$1 (-0%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,027 $1,029 +$2 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 98¢ $210 $1,028 +$818 (+390%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $1,012 $1,009 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $2,944 +$73 +2%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Mackenzie Hughes win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 +$2 +9%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $528 +$1 +0%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $192 $0 +0%
Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song o Jun 12 $317 +$6 +2%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song o Jun 12 $488 +$6 +1%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $272 +$1 +0%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $121 +$1 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $249 +$1 +0%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $451 +$6 +1%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 12 $416 +$1 +0%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $192 $0 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$16 -68%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $678 +$7 +1%
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $163 −$2 -1%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12 Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this wee Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $328 +$6 +2%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we Jun 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $207 +$56 +27%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $49 +$21 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $194 −$107 -55%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $163 +$15 +9%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $194 +$8 +4%
Will Jerry Olsen be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Sherman Tylawsky be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Lowe be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Rick Shepherd be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will George Forbush be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Doug Miller be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Billat be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will Bruce Grego be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $305 +$4 +1%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $90 +$41 +46%
Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$720
crypto 22% +$5,923
culture 18% +$3,478
politics 11% −$5,868
tech 6% +$52
sports 5% +$2,948
world 1% +$117
economics 0% −$522
finance 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $362 1h
Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $288 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $124 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $340 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $155 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $90 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $65 1h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $66 1h
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $41 2h
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage BUY No 98¢ $78 2h
Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $1,028 2h
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $20 2h
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 93¢ $22 2h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $31 2h
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $985 3h
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY No 91¢ $14 3h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $38 3h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $16 3h
Will Portugal finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 99¢ $8 3h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $76 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 16% -17.5%
≤30d 398 +1.7% -7.9% 87% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 888 +7.5% -2.7% 84% 13% -8.5%
all 959 +9.4% -1.0% 84% 14% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 14% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -16.9%
15% -19.1% 8% -25.0%
20% -27.0% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108,038.72 · official $108,038.74 (match) · 3500 history records