Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39a2…96e2
other · 105 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$16 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions103
Markets (closed)2 / 105
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day211.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 103 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31? Yes 24¢ 48¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+98%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 52¢ $1 $7 +$5 (+478%)
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals? No 47¢ 69¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? No 9¢ 48¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+433%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 51¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Valtteri Bottas achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+229%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+107%)
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+177%)
Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+63%)
Will Adriano Silva win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) DR Congo 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+167%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $3 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$13
tech 24% +$1
world 8% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 7% −$1
finance 7% −$1
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $5 7m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13m
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic pri BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic pri BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 2h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 4¢ $1 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% +62.8%
≤30d 2 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% +62.8%
≤90d 2 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% +62.8%
all 2 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% +62.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover211.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 50% +62.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 50% +47.2%
15% -29.0% 50% +33.0%
20% -35.9% 50% +20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.82 · official $70.77 · 747 history records