Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39a2…42b3 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 17% $0
politics 16% −$1
crypto 10% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -1.7% -11.0% 31% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage296d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $1 $0 -32%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 31h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.73 · official $34.04 (match) · 172 history records