Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

39 0x399f…0040 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$939 (-28%) realized −$938 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%5W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$141per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-41.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-34.8%	-41.1%	23%	23%	-36.0%
≤30d	22	-34.8%	-41.1%	23%	23%	-36.0%
≤90d	22	-34.8%	-41.1%	23%	23%	-36.0%
all	22	-34.8%	-41.1%	23%	23%	-36.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.1%	23%	-36.0%
10%	-46.7%	18%	-42.1%
15%	-51.8%	18%	-47.7%
20%	-56.6%	14%	-52.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -56% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$251 vs −$130 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$938

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses5 / 17

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$141

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$20	+$25	+123%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$622	−$620	-100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$14	+14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$307	−$300	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$504	−$500	-99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$708	+$385	+54%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	Jun 14	$113	+$786	+696%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$113	−$110	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 14	$113	−$110	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$113	−$110	-98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 13	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$202	−$200	-99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$18	−$18	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$501	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$121	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$114	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$307	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	74¢	$504	5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,093	5d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	SELL Yes	100¢	$899	5d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	6d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.04 · official $99.04 (match) · 36 history records