Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x399e…dfe6 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 3 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 8 +0.7% -8.9% 88% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage225d
Avg bet$2,111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 28 $18,781 −$19 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $14 101d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 105d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 106d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $28 110d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $28 118d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $57 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $56 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $18,762 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18,781 147d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $11 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.40 · official $31.40 (match) · 17 history records