Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x399d…14cf crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-4%) realized −$159 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$793
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.9% -32.0% 33% 28% -28.8%
≤30d 39 -24.9% -32.0% 33% 28% -28.8%
≤90d 39 -24.9% -32.0% 33% 28% -28.8%
all 39 -24.9% -32.0% 33% 28% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 28% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 28% -35.7%
15% -44.5% 21% -41.9%
20% -49.9% 13% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$59 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $96 −$47 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$217 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $411 −$411 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $206 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $204 +$67 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $205 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $490 +$185 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $256 −$54 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $205 −$102 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $257 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$22 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 34m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 35m
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 34¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $49 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $46 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $210 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $53 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $260 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $61 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $411 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $323 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $191 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $205 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $674 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $490 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.96 · official $25.97 (match) · 141 history records