Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

39 0x3999…f793 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$328 (-39%) realized −$326 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%2W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-58.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-53.8%	-58.2%	25%	25%	-62.5%
≤30d	8	-53.8%	-58.2%	25%	25%	-62.5%
≤90d	8	-53.8%	-58.2%	25%	25%	-62.5%
all	8	-53.8%	-58.2%	25%	25%	-62.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-58.2%	25%	-62.5%
10%	-62.2%	25%	-66.1%
15%	-65.9%	25%	-69.4%
20%	-69.2%	25%	-72.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -54% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$76 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$259

Realized−$326

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses2 / 6

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	60¢	60¢	$261	$259	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 22	$47	−$47	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 22	$70	−$70	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 22	$65	−$65	-100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 21	$41	+$23	+56%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	Jun 21	$175	−$172	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$83	+$92	+112%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	60¢	$266	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$65	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$70	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$47	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$41	21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5	BUY Over	64¢	$102	22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$2	22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	1¢	$3	22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	41¢	$175	23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$175	23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$83	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.11 · official $259.11 (match) · 17 history records