Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3998…a1ab politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$15
other 13% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 74 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage661d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles finish with the worst record in the NFL? Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Louisville win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's Attorney General? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Tim Scott for HUD Secretary? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Matt Rosendale for Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 18d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 38d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 38d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 46d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $57 69d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $58 70d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 71d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 71d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 92d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 93d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $58 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $58 99d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 101d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $58 101d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 104d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 105d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 110d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 111d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 117d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 133d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 135d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $56 150d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles finish with the worst record in the NFL? BUY No 100¢ $55 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records