Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3998…e936 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-7%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$153
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 27% -20.9%
≤30d 48 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 27% -20.9%
≤90d 48 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 27% -20.9%
all 48 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 27% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 27% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 25% -28.4%
15% -37.1% 21% -35.3%
20% -43.3% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$22 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $121 −$80 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$66 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$22 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$22 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$250 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$55 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records