Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3997…b3f0 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%29W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$11
sports 21% +$8
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 49% -14.7%
≤30d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 49% -14.7%
≤90d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 49% -14.7%
all 43 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 49% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -22.9%
15% -28.7% 40% -30.3%
20% -35.7% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses29 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 56m
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.27 · official $11.27 (match) · 97 history records