Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3992…349c crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$196 (-8%) realized −$130 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$825
sports 27% +$444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 41% -23.7%
≤30d 17 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 41% -23.7%
≤90d 17 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 41% -23.7%
all 17 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 41% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 41% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 41% -31.0%
15% -23.3% 35% -37.6%
20% -30.8% 29% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$93 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 51¢ 81¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Up 29¢ 16¢ $125 $70 −$55 (-44%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 40¢ 26¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Texas Rangers 24¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 2n Jun 24 $76 +$84 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$32 -31%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$23 -64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $26 +$37 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $209 −$101 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 23 $156 −$27 -17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $235 +$82 +35%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $36 +$52 +145%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$255 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $229 −$147 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 6m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Colombi BUY 36¢ $76 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 18m
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 2n SELL 99¢ $160 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $72 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 31m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $51 33m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 34m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $51 38m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $51 41m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Seattle Mariners 71¢ $63 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 28¢ $26 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $9 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 60¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $158 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $132 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 2n BUY 46¢ $76 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.79 · official $348.80 · 53 history records