Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3991…1828 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$5
tech 38% −$2
world 4% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -14.8%
all 12 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 0% -14.8%
10% -27.3% 0% -23.0%
15% -34.4% 0% -30.4%
20% -40.8% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 14 $2 −$1 -82%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 71¢ $15 53m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 71¢ $15 53m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 43¢ $9 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 44¢ $9 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 60¢ $9 2h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 62¢ $9 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $19 19h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 19h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL No $0 2d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No $2 2d
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 48¢ $11 2d
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 51¢ $12 2d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $16 2d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $17 2d
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $17 2d
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 2d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $6 2d
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 2d
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records