Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x398d…b8d6
sports · 952 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,710 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,739 · open +$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$168
Realized−$2,739
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses462 / 487
Est. fees paid−$747
Open positions3
Markets (closed)949 / 952
History coverage98d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 949 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$96
14 days+$200
30 days−$1,707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 70¢ 100¢ $89 $128 +$39 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 53¢ 53¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Team Heretics 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1 Ninjas in Pyjamas 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 24¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner DN SOOPers 22¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 61¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SK Gaming 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 52¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season ZYB Esport 51¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Maycee Barber 64¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOUD 32¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Shifters 37¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner paiN Gaming Academy 35¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner G2 Esports 31¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 72¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card) Michael Aswell 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner Fluxo W7M 36¢ 0¢ $162 $0 −$162 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 41¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$19 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$159 +341%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $48 +$19 +39%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $80 −$79 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $107 −$16 -15%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $82 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 09 $56 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $72 +$54 +74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $48 −$25 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $121 +$75 +62%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $37 +$12 +33%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $40 +$18 +45%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$30 +55%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $40 +$25 +61%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$6 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $70 −$69 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $81 +$45 +56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $71 +$37 +52%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $148 +$28 +19%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $136 −$135 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $81 +$52 +64%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$2 +21%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $90 +$93 +103%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $42 +$15 +36%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $199 +$87 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $171 −$169 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $110 +$112 +102%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $82 −$81 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $69 +$39 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $101 +$59 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $74 −$73 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $71 −$62 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$1,686
other 8% −$923
politics 0% −$47
finance 0% −$40
culture 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 53¢ $41 14m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $80 57m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $30 3h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $5 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $60 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $205 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 70¢ $19 5h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $28 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $15 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 36h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 38h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 93¢ $21 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 93¢ $10 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 93¢ $6 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 93¢ $31 40h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 66¢ $48 40h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 41¢ $41 2d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 40¢ $40 2d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 14¢ $7 2d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner SELL Fluxo W7M 41¢ $88 2d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 42¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 54% -7.4%
≤30d 272 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 49% -16.8%
≤90d 929 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 48% -13.1%
all 949 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 48% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 48% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 46% -21.5%
15% -31.8% 41% -29.0%
20% -38.5% 32% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.72 · official $167.72 (match) · 2179 history records