Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x398c…c935 other 528 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,397 (+13%) realized +$1,343 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%178W / 343L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$312
14 days+$441
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$806
other 33% +$522
crypto 2% −$60
world 1% +$100
politics 1% −$30
sports 0% −$27
finance 0% −$14
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +30.2% +17.8% 39% 36% +20.5%
≤30d 143 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 23% -1.5%
≤90d 336 +20.4% +8.9% 39% 31% +2.5%
all 521 +10.6% +0.1% 34% 27% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 27% +1.2%
10% -9.5% 24% -8.5%
15% -18.2% 21% -17.4%
20% -26.2% 19% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$1,343
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses178 / 343
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)521 / 528
History coverage197d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $45 $74 +$29 (+66%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 51¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$22 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $222 +$83 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$78 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$24 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$31 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$17 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$20 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $106 −$16 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $111 +$114 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$48 +1158%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$7 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$7 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$6 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $226 +$19 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 11 $205 −$4 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$7 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 +$39 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$3 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 40m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 51m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 56m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 20¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 30h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 40h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.63 · official $468.63 (match) · 1823 history records