Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x398b…97ee sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,730 (+41%) realized +$1,733 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 230d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,932
other 29% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 29% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.3% 29% +39.2%
10% -56.0% 29% +25.9%
15% -60.2% 29% +13.7%
20% -64.1% 29% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,239 vs −$149 · ×8.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$999
Realized+$1,733
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage230d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,002 $999 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $249 −$246 -99%
Steelers vs. Chargers Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $100 +$75 +75%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $2,371 +$2,402 +101%
Spread: Panthers (-3.5) Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $249 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $249 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $773 2d
Steelers vs. Chargers BUY Steelers 41¢ $100 225d
Spread: Panthers (-3.5) BUY Panthers 57¢ $100 225d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 37¢ $50 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $530 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $70 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $100 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $100 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $30 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $69 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 57¢ $100 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $200 226d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 62¢ $320 226d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 63¢ $1,001 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.33 · official $999.33 (match) · 23 history records