Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x398a…868b sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$201 (-17%) realized −$199 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 50% -33.5%
≤30d 4 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 50% -33.5%
≤90d 6 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -28.6%
all 6 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 50% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 50% -28.6%
10% -33.5% 50% -35.4%
15% -39.9% 50% -41.7%
20% -45.8% 17% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$165 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage58d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Playoffs BIG Academy 81¢ 80¢ $142 $140 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Wi Jun 26 $172 +$78 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $246 +$101 +41%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 25 $193 −$193 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 25 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 30 $102 +$103 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 81¢ $143 1h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Wi SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $250 2h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Wi BUY Los Angeles Thieves 68¢ $172 9h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $106 32h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $140 35h
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) BUY Nuggets 50¢ $91 57d
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) BUY Nuggets 50¢ $102 57d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Hawks 50¢ $201 57d
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) BUY Magic 49¢ $102 58d
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $102 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.25 · official $140.25 (match) · 15 history records