Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3989…d601
crypto · 412 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$55 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses202 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)411 / 412
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1525.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 411 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$26
other 0% +$81
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 411 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 411 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 1% -9.2%
all 411 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1525.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 1% -17.9%
15% -34.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.80 · official $14.80 (match) · 3500 history records