Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3989…27b1
sports · 1119 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$37,439 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,282 · open +$8,279
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30,994
Realized+$3,282
Unrealized+$8,279
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses489 / 604
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$722
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1093 / 1119
History coverage412d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 26 History 1093 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$668
7 days+$440
14 days+$3,622
30 days+$5,705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 87¢ $11,165 $17,960 +$6,795 (+61%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 62¢ 90¢ $2,943 $4,229 +$1,286 (+44%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,562 $1,578 +$16 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 56¢ 82¢ $781 $1,153 +$371 (+48%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $1,040 $1,032 −$8 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1,055 $972 −$82 (-8%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $870 $859 −$12 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $346 $600 +$253 (+73%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $426 $517 +$91 (+21%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $290 $285 −$5 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $276 $273 −$3 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $378 $211 −$167 (-44%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $189 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $179 $190 +$12 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $168 $174 +$6 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $170 $165 −$5 (-3%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $149 $143 −$6 (-4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $67 $95 +$28 (+41%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $46 $38 −$8 (-17%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $33 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 67¢ 88¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+32%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+52%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $427 +$144 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $36 +$24 +65%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $299 −$295 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $696 +$467 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,279 +$719 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $849 −$344 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $318 −$314 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1,170 −$51 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $388 −$335 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 09 $45 −$44 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $430 −$99 -23%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $770 +$615 +80%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $2,819 +$381 +14%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $276 −$178 -64%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 02 $179 −$177 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $194 −$192 -99%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 02 $963 −$933 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $514 −$53 -10%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $133 −$129 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $304 +$295 +97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $1,862 +$4,060 +218%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $364 +$235 +64%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $376 −$17 -5%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $298 +$302 +101%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 28 $439 −$400 -91%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $158 +$141 +89%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 27 $358 −$354 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 May 27 $193 −$189 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $254 −$250 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 May 27 $255 −$252 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 May 27 $235 −$230 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 27 $298 −$294 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $225 −$220 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $394 +$206 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $340 −$336 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $316 −$312 -99%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 26 $34 −$28 -82%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $340 +$218 +64%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $328 +$271 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $310 −$306 -99%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $374 +$163 +44%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $588 +$127 +22%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $274 +$226 +82%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $599 +$208 +35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $338 +$162 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $254 −$87 -34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $340 +$259 +76%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 22 $4,118 +$5,138 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$6,576
politics 16% +$11,280
other 13% +$6,238
economics 2% +$1,210
tech 1% +$571
crypto 0% −$900
world 0% −$76
culture 0% −$122
finance 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $174 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $296 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $280 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,051 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 78¢ $571 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 3h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 35¢ $48 7h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $106 8h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 8h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,568 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $299 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $193 32h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 32h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 26¢ $365 38h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 26¢ $140 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 56¢ $318 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,279 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 67¢ $660 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $458 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 37¢ $379 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 81¢ $805 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 SELL Over 92¢ $48 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 62¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 51¢ $40 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $212 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $958 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 67¢ $22 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 60¢ $36 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 62¢ $45 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 60¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.0% -33.0% 38% 38% -3.3%
≤30d 62 -30.4% -37.1% 35% 35% +8.6%
≤90d 555 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% -47.3%
all 1093 -5.1% -14.1% 45% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -8.3%
10% -22.3% 43% -17.1%
15% -29.8% 42% -25.1%
20% -36.7% 40% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,993.70 · official $30,993.88 (match) · 3500 history records