trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -49.3% | -54.2% | 50% | 0% | -60.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -49.3% | -54.2% | 50% | 0% | -60.5% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -49.3% | -54.2% | 50% | 0% | -60.5% |
| all | 2 | -49.3% | -54.2% | 50% | 0% | -60.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -54.2% | 0% | -60.5% |
| 10% | -58.6% | 0% | -64.3% |
| 15% | -62.6% | 0% | -67.7% |
| 20% | -66.2% | 0% | -70.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | No | 83¢ | 70¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Yes | 40¢ | 30¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-33%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri | Jun 16 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |