Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3982…6278 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-2%) realized −$118 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%40W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$410
other 10% +$65
sports 4% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 53% -14.3%
≤30d 72 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 53% -14.3%
≤90d 72 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 53% -14.3%
all 72 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 53% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 53% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -22.5%
15% -22.6% 40% -30.0%
20% -30.2% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$57 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses40 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$14 -67%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +199%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$30 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$11 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +520%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$26 +84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$32 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$78 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$83 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $281 +$116 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $155 +$132 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 38m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 39m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 56m
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.91 · official $55.91 (match) · 186 history records