Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x3981…3c27 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$2
world 21% −$1
economics 13% −$1
other 10% −$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% +$75
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.9% +8.5% 44% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 13 +5.8% -4.3% 46% 15% -8.0%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 12% -8.0%
all 43 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -8.6%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.4%
15% -24.8% 5% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage385d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $845 $0 +0%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $870 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $915 −$1 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 +$10 +90%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $95 +$86 +90%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 3? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 25 $15 $0 -3%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 March 9-15? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Mar 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January? Feb 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.03 in December? Jan 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on November 6? Dec 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? Dec 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,300 September 15-21? Oct 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 08 $326 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 23 $275 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 03 $268 $0 -0%
Will Wydad AC win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 03 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $821 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $335 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $228 1h
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $535 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $685 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $915 1h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $539 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $720 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $710 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $711 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $95 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 6d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $14 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 74¢ $20 29d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $15 33d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 72d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 72d
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene SELL No 100¢ $28 101d
Will Solana dip to $40 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $13 101d
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY No 100¢ $28 101d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 100¢ $28 136d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $15.95 (match) · 116 history records