Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3980…fc30 crypto 1148 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$535 (-4%) realized −$535 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%773W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$55
14 days−$74
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -7.7% -16.5% 65% 65% -18.4%
≤30d 841 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 68% -13.9%
≤90d 1148 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 66% -13.6%
all 1148 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 66% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 66% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 59% -21.9%
15% -28.0% 32% -29.4%
20% -35.0% 10% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses773 / 375
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1148 / 1148
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1148 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records