Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x397f…85f6 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+2%) realized +$101 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$225
14 days−$247
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$376
other 24% −$407
crypto 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +18.7% +7.4% 48% 48% -20.4%
≤30d 52 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 56 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 39% -11.5%
all 76 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 37% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 37% -12.0%
10% -27.6% 37% -20.5%
15% -34.6% 37% -28.1%
20% -41.0% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$38 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage243d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 24¢ $38 $20 −$18 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$51 +100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $79 +$51 +64%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 +$21 +255%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$30 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$49 +50%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 −$26 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $183 +$185 +101%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$89 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 −$139 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$55 +180%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$42 +344%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$19 +132%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $15 +$24 +158%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $25 +$50 +198%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $308 +$265 +86%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $20 +$30 +146%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $19 +$29 +152%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $61 −$6 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $20 +$14 +67%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $53 −$15 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $16 38m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $40 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 45¢ $14 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $51 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $130 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $79 7h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $98 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $93 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $89 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $368 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $81 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $102 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $141 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 27¢ $51 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.59 · official $19.59 (match) · 147 history records