Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x397e…fe89 other 29 markets active 2d ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$706 (-6%) realized −$821 · open +$115
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$337
14 days+$337
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$930
sports 15% −$1,572
crypto 13% −$248
politics 13% −$45
world 8% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 17% -0.7%
≤30d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 79% 14% -0.9%
≤90d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 79% 14% -0.9%
all 24 -9.7% -18.3% 71% 17% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 17% -17.4%
10% -26.1% 8% -25.3%
15% -33.3% 4% -32.5%
20% -39.8% 4% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$330 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$1,314
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage577d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $549 $660 +$111 (+20%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $501 −$350 -70%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $2,522 +$669 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Dec 05 $1,000 −$59 -6%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? Dec 02 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Nov 30 $242 +$41 +17%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Nov 30 $614 −$614 -100%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Nov 30 $599 +$14 +2%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 30 $1,201 +$41 +3%
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? Nov 28 $1,000 +$86 +9%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Nov 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November? Nov 28 $1,016 +$99 +10%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $639 +$377 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $105 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes $49 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes $11 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes $94 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $89 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $406 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 63¢ $93 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes $11 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,313.56 · official $1,313.56 (match) · 90 history records