Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x397a…faec world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$1
other 11% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +8.2% -2.1% 24% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 +8.2% -2.1% 24% 6% -9.7%
all 38 +4.2% -5.7% 45% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +163%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $24 −$3 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $124 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $138 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 9–16? May 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 15 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $36 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $21 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $16 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $37 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $34 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $20 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $14 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $31 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.43 · official $2.43 (match) · 129 history records